US eGrocery Sales Trends with Brick Meets Click – October 2025 Insights

October Online Grocery Sales Reach $11.6 Billion 

U.S. online grocery sales totalling $11.6 billion in October 2025, up 10.5% year over year. 

But even as this marks yet another successive month of year over year growth for online grocery, it also represents the first time since 2020 that October’s sales are less than September’s. 

These headline numbers reflect both progress and pressure.  

Economic anxiety, rising household costs, and shifting definitions of “convenience” are reshaping several KPIs.  

That strain is only likely to intensify as we move into November, when the effects of delayed and partially funded SNAP payments will begin to show up in spending behavior. 

For right now, the numbers form a mixed picture of momentum that reveals more about shopper psychology than any single performance metric can. 

Amazon’s Model Is Rewriting “Fast and Affordable” 

Delivery sales fell 1.8% year over year, slowed by weaker user growth and smaller baskets.  

Ship-to-home, meanwhile, surged more than 50%, fueled by Amazon’s expanding Fresh service, which offers same-day shipping without the delivery fees or tips. For cost-conscious Prime members, it’s convenience at a discount and it’s clearly pulling share from delivery. 

Pickup remains steady as the middle ground for shoppers balancing budget and immediacy.  

On the surface, it may seem like an enormous shift from one fulfillment method to another. But look deeper, and it reflects how shoppers are reevaluating value itself.  

Growth Is Wide, Not Deep 

Amazon’s push to make same-day shipping feel like delivery is pulling more shoppers back online, but the jury is still out on whether it’s going to keep them there. 

The monthly active user base hit a record 83.3 million, up 16.6% year over year, driven mostly by reactivated and infrequent shoppers testing the convenience of new low-cost options.  

But that trial hasn’t yet translated into stronger engagement.  

Order frequency held steady, and average order values for delivery and pickup both fell, even as ship-to-home climbed 5%. 

In other words, Amazon’s expansion is widening the market, not necessarily deepening it.  

That’s a critical distinction. This month’s growth is about exploration, not entrenchment.  

And when shoppers are exploring, it creates an opportunity for all retailers. 

Turning Exploration Into Engagement 

That makes this moment both volatile and full of potential for regional grocers. 

Shoppers aren’t leaving online grocery. They’re redefining “value” as the balance between speed, cost, and confidence. 

While Walmart and Amazon chase faster fulfillment, grocers can stand out by turning reactivated and infrequent shoppers into loyal ones through experiences that feel personal and rewarding. 

Mass retailers can deliver faster, but they can’t deliver familiarity. Use that advantage. Remind shoppers that convenience isn’t just logistics. It’s trust, too. 

In other words, bring what already sets you apart in-store—local credibility and human connection—into your digital channels. 

DXPro makes that possible, bridging proximity and personalization to turn local trust into lasting loyalty. 

How DXPro Helps Grocers Deepen Customer Connections 

DXPro’s embedded Customer Data Platform pulls intelligence from POS, loyalty, and eCommerce systems and consolidates it in one place. 

Instead of scattered records and partial profiles, DXPro gives grocers a full picture of how people shop: what they buy, how often they come back, and which offers bring them in again. 

With that insight, DXPro’s built-in engagement programs automatically identify reactivated and infrequent users, re-engage them with timely offers, and reinforce value when price sensitivity is high. 

It also connects those digital touchpoints back to the store, ensuring shoppers see the same offers, earn the same rewards, and feel recognized wherever they shop. That consistency strengthens the trust regional grocers already own and turns it into repeat behavior. 

Speaking of which… 

In October, the repeat-intent rate gap between grocers and mass narrowed sharply, with grocers even pulling ahead in delivery. Customers are ready to stay loyal if retailers make it easy, personal, and rewarding to do so. 

DXPro gives grocers the data and tools to do exactly that: anticipate needs, deliver value at the right moment, and turn rising intent into lasting engagement. 

Where the Market Goes from Here 

October’s data shows a market in transition, not retreat.  

Shoppers aren’t abandoning eGrocery. They’re redefining value around cost, trust, and control. 

The narrowing repeat-intent gap proves they’re open to deepening loyalty, but only if grocers make that trust visible. 

As financial pressure builds and SNAP disruptions test budgets, the grocers who anticipate needs and make every interaction feel dependable will strengthen retention and protect their market share. 

Download the October 2025 Brick Meets Click / Mercatus US eGrocery Sales Report to find all the data behind this month’s insights.